The revenge of the close architecture (Apple success = the black box model for B2C)

Most people are expecting Apple slow decline since Steve Jobs died. Basically, history will repeat itself : microsoft vs apple and now android vs iphone. Open architecture will win again against close architecture.

I am not so sure and here is why: 

• Apple is fundamentally B2C
• C want stuff that works, real plug and play. Average Joe don't really care if its not an open architecture like microsoft and android. Average Joe want stuff that works straight away. 
• Increase of complexity (ISP/wifi/driver/software/configuration/....) + new businesses in tech support like http://www.radialpoint.com/

The black box model says basically that at a level of complexity, we are no longer able to understand increasingly complex explanation (stack of layers of abstractions). Basically, in the future, it will be the norm to convince people with images and emotions rather than arguments. 

Close architecture has the major advantage of keeping thing simple which is becoming more and more relevant in this techno world. Open architecture is for geeks and businesses.  

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Here is the black box model as expose in "the decision book:50 decision models".  

WIRED: Nightmare on connected home street